The Shutdown

I asked Perplexity AI “Who will profit from the upcoming government shutdown”?

Here is the answer:

“The upcoming government shutdown is likely to benefit a select set of political actors and economic interests, primarily those with executive control and those positioned to leverage instability. President Donald Trump and his administration are expected to gain increased executive power, with the Office of Management and Budget already asserting greater control over fiscal decisions often reserved for Congress. Political leaders who engineer or navigate the shutdown may use it to reinforce partisan narratives, extract policy concessions, and consolidate influence over federal priorities.

Political Beneficiaries

President Trump and congressional allies, as control over government operations temporarily increases, can push favored policy agendas and frame the shutdown to benefit their political standing.

Partisan actors, particularly those with messaging platforms, may exploit the crisis to strengthen loyalty among core supporters and create pressure for desired legislative outcomes.

Congressional leaders, especially in charge of funding negotiations, can galvanize their bases by highlighting efforts to protect favored programs or blame the opposition for service disruptions.

Economic and Sector Winners

Private contractors and consultants who provide services deemed essential or find opportunities from halted federal activity may see increased demand or exclusive business.

Investors in firms not tied to government contracts or whose business benefits from regulatory delays (such as certain financial companies or land development interests) may gain from pending federal actions.

Entities with lobbying muscle and influence in Washington may extract concessions or delayed regulations that serve their interests by leveraging the government’s need to resume operations.

Who Loses

Federal workers face furloughs, potential layoffs, and missed paychecks with little guarantee of retroactive compensation, especially if mass permanent job cuts proceed as planned in 2025.

Lower-income families, small businesses reliant on federal services, and sectors dependent on timely government functions (e.g., food safety, veterans’ benefits, mortgage approvals) will bear the brunt of lost income and disrupted services.

The broader economy typically loses billions in GDP during extended shutdowns, with many losses unrecovered even after operations resume.

In summary, government shutdowns generally empower executive actors, partisan leaders, select private interests, and investors who can adapt to (or capitalize on) regulatory uncertainty, while most workers and service-dependent populations lose out”.